Pills To Treat COVID-19 Are Here… Sort Of
Author: Andrea Taylor
We are excited to release data on purchases of therapeutics to treat COVID-19. The latest numbers are available from the Duke Global Health Innovation Center at the Launch and Scale Speedometer project here.
Oral therapeutics for COVID-19 have been heralded as a game changer, with the first two recently coming to market from Pfizer (Paxlovid) and Merck (molnupiravir). For the past year, vaccines and social distancing measures have been our only significant tools to combat COVID19. As we try to prepare for whatever comes after the omicron variant, which caused infection and hospitalization rates to surge globally, oral therapeutics provide one more line of defense, particularly for those at most risk of bad outcomes.
It is important to note that the two oral therapeutics on the market differ significantly. Among people at high risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19, Merck’s molnupiravir demonstrated 30% efficacy at preventing severe disease, while Pfizer’s Paxlovid was 89% effective. The risks (and recommended populations) are different. Both have received conditional approval in the US and many other countries worldwide, though some countries have expressed reservations about widespread use of Merck’s product.
It is going to be a long wait
As promising as they are, these drugs are not likely to change the game for most of the world in 2025 for three reasons. First, the supply for most of this year will be very limited and nowhere near enough to meet the need. Second, much like we saw with vaccines in 2024, the initial supply from Pfizer and Merck is already locked up by wealthy countries. And finally, effective use of these tablets depends on robust diagnostic capacity and a strong test-and-treat strategy, which is not yet in place for most of the world’s countries.